In order to evaluate adaption options, organisations need help from scientists. Robust Decision aid consists of a process and tools to select the most flexible and viable strategies for adaptation. The process combines expert knowledge with scientific data from climate and sectoral models.
The process was developed in a European “Tool supported policy development for regional adaption”- project (www.topdad.eu). The project focused on climate change impacts on tourism (decreasing winter snow cover & rising summer temperatures), transport (retreating arctic sea & information on weather extremes) and energy (impact on power production). In addition two cross-sectoral cases have been elaborated, namely effects of urban flooding and effects of protracted drought and heatwave on energy, transportation and tourism.
Complexity of problems require a competent network
VTT tackles the complexity of the problems by collecting a multidisciplinary team with supplementary competences from the network partners. The European network for climate change adaptation strategies include following organisations:
Center of International Climate and Environmental research (Norway),
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (UK),
Joanneum Research (Austria),
Transport&Mobility Leuven (Belgium),
Institute of Transport Planning and Systems (Switzerland),
Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland),
University of East Anglia (UK),
Institute of Economic Structures Research (Germany) and
Alterra (Netherlands). Each partners brings to the network the sectoral competence and specific models and software to support robust decision aid and interactive tool
ToPDAd Interactive Tool
The ToPDAd project has developed an integrated methodology to assess climate adaptation strategies and then applied it to seven regional case studies from the energy, transport and tourism sectors.
The case studies are relevant for wider regions in Europe and provide insight into the economic effects of climate change and adaptation measures on a timescale up to 2050 or 2100. Based on a unique combination of sector models and macro-economic models, the case studies provide both a sectoral outlook and information on the overall (inter)national economic effects.
With the Interactive site and its Data Exploration Tool you can explore the main conclusions and the detailed outcomes.
ToPDAd method for robust decision-making - SRVM
SRVM stands for Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method, and is a participatory decision making method where uncertainties related to model results and expert judgment are integrated and visualized on radar plots such that 'robustness' of adaptation strategies are visually identifiable. Robust decision-making means that you select a strategy that performs satisfyingly under any scenario outcome, given a predefined set of these.