In a broad-based study covering all 27 EU Member States, VTT Technical
Research Centre of Finland lead an evaluation of the risks posed to transport
by extreme weather phenomena. This recent study demonstrates that the level of
risks varies significantly among the EU Member States. This is the first study
in the world to evaluate the risks posed to transport by weather phenomena on
a country-specific and mode-specific basis. Among the EU Member States, Poland
has the highest risk level indicator. The highest-risk regions are in the
countries of Eastern Europe and in mountainous areas. Low-risk countries
include Ireland, Austria, Luxembourg and the Nordic countries.
The risk-level evaluation was conducted using a risk indicator designed by VTT
scientists. The calculations were performed on substantial datasets and
involved estimating the probability of phenomena such as heavy rain, floods,
landslides, storms and heat waves based on long-term weather statistics. The
weather data for the study were supplied by the Finnish Meteorological
Institute. The risk indicator also incorporated country-specific data on
traffic density, population density, the quality level of transport systems
and the economic resources available.
"This is an internationally unique study, because risk levels have never
before been determined on a country-specific basis. We found considerable
differences in risk levels between countries and regions. In the Nordic
countries, Ireland, Austria and Luxembourg, transport systems cope with
extreme weather phenomena considerably better than in the EU Member States on
average. A number of factors contribute to these low risk levels: a strong
economy, low traffic densities and a transport infrastructure that is in good
condition and runs smoothly", explains Principal Scientist Pekka Leviäkangas
from VTT. "Transport systems face significant risks from extreme weather
phenomena in all EU Member States, and it is vital to be able to manage these
risks in order to ensure the smooth and safe flow of traffic and thereby the
continued functioning of society at large." Cyprus and Malta are also low-risk
countries.
Significant differences between countries
The study involved evaluating the risk levels associated with extreme weather
phenomena in transport as regards accidents, delays and infrastructure. The
cost to transport caused by extreme weather phenomena in the EU Member States
is estimated at EUR 15 billion per year at the very least. The majority of
this is due to road accidents and delays to transport of goods. Heavy rain and
floods cause the most disruption. Heat waves are a significant adverse
phenomenon in southern Europe. In the Nordic countries and in mountainous
areas, traffic flow may be compromised by snow, ice and frost. Mountainous
areas are also prone to landslides.
Poland emerged as the country with the highest individual risk indicator. The
risk level is also quite high in Italy, Romania and Hungary. Considered by
region, the highest risk levels are found in Eastern European countries and in
mountainous areas. "Poland has high volumes of traffic and large harbours, and
the country's transport systems are in poorer shape than for most parts of the
EU. Also, the country experiences a comparatively high incidence of extreme
weather phenomena. A problem at a transport hub, such as a port, has extensive
knock-on effects on road and rail transport. Poland also has a fairly high
population density, and its economy is at the lower end of the scale within
the EU," says Leviäkangas. "That is why the risk level there is high."
"Bad weather increases the probability of road accidents. One should always
take account of the weather when planning travel, where possible," says
Leviäkangas.
"Transport infrastructure can be improved through careful planning that takes
better account of weather phenomena. The climate is warming up, and there are
weak signals indicating that extreme weather phenomena are on the increase,"
adds Leviäkangas. "Much greater attention should be paid to the maintenance
and upkeep of the transport infrastructure, particularly in urban areas.
Drainage systems, for instance, should be functioning as designed, and they
should be regularly serviced - sometimes even small things can matter. The
appropriate preparation can save a lot in costs in the long term."
The principal provider of funds for the project 'Extreme weather impacts on
European networks of transport' (EWENT) was the Seventh Framework Programme of
the European Commission. In addition to VTT, the research consortium included
the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Foreca Consulting Ltd, the Norwegian
Institute of Transport Economics, the German Aerospace Centre DLR, the
Austrian inland-waterway transport development company Via Donau, the
Meteorological Institute of Cyprus, the European Severe Storms Laboratory
(ESSL) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
Project website: http://ewent.vtt.fi/
VTT publication of the report: /Documents/2012_T43.pdf
